SoNaRR 2025: Climate change

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This information is part of the State of Natural Resources Report 2025

Climate change is the long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. Such shifts can be natural, due to changes in the sun’s activity or large volcanic eruptions. But since the 1800s, human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to the emission of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas.

Climate change alters habitat conditions, species distributions, and resource availability, leading to reduced resilience and ecological degradation. Management and mitigation efforts are essential to address these growing impacts across Wales.

Key messages

  • Increased and sustained action across all levels of government, business and civil society is required to effectively combat the climate emergency, deliver a just transition to a low carbon future and meet Wales’ carbon budgets and net zero by 2050.
  • Climate change is and will continue to impact all ecosystems in Wales, with warmer, wetter winters, hotter, drier summers, and a higher number of more extreme events predicted to occur.
  • There is an urgent need for joined up climate adaptation and mitigation to support a climate resilient Wales that enhances biodiversity, reduces flood risk and improves public health.
  • Climate change interacts with other pressures such as land use change, pollution and INNS, to compound the threats to our ecosystems. Integrated responses to multiple pressures presents novel opportunities for co-benefits to nature, communities and health.
  • There are major opportunities for encouraging individual action and behavioural change, and for enabling ecosystems to play key roles in both reducing emissions and building a climate resilient Wales.

Summary

Global greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise since SoNaRR2020, increasing the risk to the planet from human-induced climate change. Wales met the first carbon budget target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in 2020, and is on track to meet the second budget in 2025, although this will be a greater challenge. Carbon Budget 3 (2026-2030) requires a 58% reduction in emissions in Wales against a 1990 baseline. Globally and nationally, there is a need for continued and increased action across all levels of society to meet stick to these carbon budgets and the pathway to net zero by 2050 in a way that is fair and that reaps the benefits of transition in Wales.

Climate change is and will continue to impact all ecosystems in Wales, with warmer, wetter winters, hotter, drier summers, and a higher number of more intense extreme events predicted to occur. The biggest threats from climate change in the natural environment are to vulnerable habitats which include, mountains, moorlands and heaths, and coastal margins.

There is an urgent need for climate action, both mitigation and adaptation, to create a Wales that is resilient to future climate impacts. This consists of both adaptation measures including coastal realignment and the creation of diverse ecosystems, to emissions reductions such as through peatland restoration.

Compounding impacts between multiple pressures to Wales’ natural resources such as climate change, INNS, and land use change, increase the threats of these drivers of change to all ecosystems and resources.

There is an increased need for more individual action, behavioural change and for ecosystems to take a role in climate resilience to combat the climate emergency. Action Wales-wide is needed from the household, to government, to ecosystem level for both mitigation (such as support for, and implementation of, green household energy systems, peatland restoration and woodland creation) and adaptation (through the development of adaptive policies and proactive planning for incidents such as wildfire and flooding).

Key changes since SoNaRR2020

Since SoNaRR2020, Welsh carbon emissions have reduced slightly, although overall global carbon emissions continue to increase, thus also increasing the impacts from climate change to Wales. Average air and water temperatures continue to increase, with an increase in extreme events seen over the past five years.

The third Climate Change Risk Assessment for Wales was published in 2021, detailing 61 risks and opportunities to Wales from climate change. This has informed the second national adaptation plan, the Climate Adaptation Strategy for Wales, published in 2024.

Wales met the first carbon budget target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in 2020, and is on track to meet the second budget in 2025, although this will be a greater challenge.

Follow the link to the full climate change assessment in our State of Natural Resources Report 2025.

Read this assessment

 

Key evidence sources

Explore some of the evidence we have used to inform our assessment:

Case studies

The National Peatland Action Programme

The National Peatland Action Programme is a 5-year plan of peatland restoration in Wales, 2020 – 2025. Restoration action on over 1650 hectares in the first two years means the programme surpassed its initial restoration targets of 600-800 hectares of public and private land every year.

Natural Resources Wales / The National Peatland Action Programme

Conwy Opportunity Catchment

A landscape-scale project to improve the quality of the environment and heritage of the upper Conwy catchment. Working with local communities to deliver the goals of the Wellbeing Act, for present and future generations. Through this project we are making communities more resilient to climate change using nature-based solutions to restore natural processes, enabling nature to recover, and working with landowners and communities we are minimising pollution.

Upper Conwy catchment project | Wales | National Trust

Sustainable Farming Scheme

Welsh Government’s Sustainable Farming Scheme (SFS), which starts in 2026, aims to support farmers in the sustainable production of food whilst addressing both the climate and nature emergencies. It addresses the Sustainable Land Management objective in the Agriculture (Wales) Act 2023 to maintain and enhance ecosystem resilience. The scheme will support climate resilience and should support Nature Based Solutions.

Introduction to the Sustainable Farming Scheme | GOV.WALES

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